Bordeaux 2024: What to Expect

The opening image, care of Pascal Henriot of Enosens, sums up the 2024 vintage in one image, where fully ripe grapes sit next to others threatened by mildew, rot or coulure.

From this, it’s clear why we can sum up the vintage in one word: Tri, in French, or Sorting in English.

Weather

• The key stages of the growing season – flowering,  fruit set, water stress before veraison, final ripening and harvest – all encountered challenges in 2024.
• This was a vintage where the Atlantic climate was unmistakeable, with mild temperatures and unusually high rainfall.
• Wettest winter season since 2000. Overall 70% more rain throughout the season that the 10 year average, with rain falling in the key months of May and September, so impacting both flowering and harvest.
• The wet Spring meant an early bud break, and the insane situation during the En Primeur week of fighting against both frost and mildew, while still having to receive hundreds of tasters during the day, which anyone who was in the region last April might well remember.
• Overall there were fewer frost days than we have seen in recent years, with nine below freezing compared to 15 on average over the past decade, and generally temperatures were 1.5C higher than the 10 year average during the winter months.
• Cooler weather in Spring slowed down vine growth, and the early budding returned to normal timing by the end of May. It also meant, however, that flowering – which began around May 22 in the earliest-ripening plots – was uneven, with coulure and millerandage an issue – effectively meaning shot berries and uneven fruit set, along with a general lack of sun and mildew risk, all impacting yield potential.
• The weather throughout the growing season meant regular treatments were required, requiring manpower, financial resources and equipment.
• Hydric constraint, slowing down the growth of leaves and basically anything on the vine but the grape clusters, is a key quality indicator that the vines clearly struggled with in 2024.
• By July the temperatures rose, and berry development progressed rapidly, giving a much needed injection of cheer across most of the vineyard. Between 15mm and 35mm of rain fell between July 1 and August 15 depending on the appellation, which will certainly have helped the concentration of fruit. There were also very few temperature spikes (reaching up to 38C once or twice), compared to the past few vintages. This together with cool nights meant excellent aromatic development in both red and white grapes.
• After the heat of 2022 and 2023 summers, the number of days over 30-35C returned to normal. July and August saw the exact average of days over 30C of the last 20 years.
• Despite this, timing had been impacted by earlier issues, and by the time of colour change, or veraison on July 22 (around 10 days later than 2022 and 2023), this was clearly going to be a late vintage, around one week behind the ten year average. Veraison didn’t finish til mid August in some areas, and Merlot plots rarely began harvest before September 23, with most Cabernets not starting before September 30.
• Late August and into September, things turned rainy again, causing further issues with that crucial final stretch of ripening. Our Bordeaux Mentor Week students, who are always here during the last week of September, were unable to harvest this year, instead they were out in the vineyards leaf stripping, ensuring maximum sunshine could reach the berries, and protecting against any spread of rot.
• Overall there was around 100mm of rain across most of Bordeaux in September, but cool nights meant that, although a risk, most disease impact was limited at this point if vineyard teams were vigilant, and far less rot was seen than might have been expected. This was a positive – but sugars rose very slowly, and acids, particularly malic, fell equally slowly.
• Careful sorting was required, which further reduced yields, as you will see below.
• Many winemakers have commented that blending in 2024 took a long time, and needed careful technical choices and vineyard knowledge.
• This can be categorised as a late harvest, with similar dates to 2000, 2012 and 2016, but earlier than 2008, 2013 and 2021.

Yields

• Even smaller than 2023 production figures, 2024 Bordeaux is expected to deliver 3.3 million hectolitres of wine, even with an average yield of 35.1hl/h, lowest since 1991. The difference? Yes the challenging weather conditions, but don’t underestimate the impact of all those grubbed up vines, from 103,000ha down to 93,000ha. When I moved to Bordeaux in 2003, the vineyard footprint was closer to 115,000ha. See below for details.

High points

• Balanced alcohols, rarely exceeding 13.5%abv.
• Terroir made a huge difference. As Alexander van Beek at Château Giscours pointed out, ‘We remembered was gravel was for, and why it is such a powerful tool – drainage!’
• Clay soils performed well this year, certainly the higher quality clays that were able to retain water and measure its delivery back to the grapes, so avoiding swelling and dilution.
• Gravel and its draining capacity clearly stood to do well – and could heat up quickly when the sun came along.
• Sandy soils were more challenging,  while limestone should have had little problem with drainage, but the issue might be austerity in the final wines, after challenges reaching full ripeness.
• Cabernet Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc that was able to hold on into October should have done well – however, unripe Cabernet inevitably means pyrazine and hard tannins, so let’s see how that translates in the final wines. Merlot was badly impacted by uneven fruit set, but it is an earlier ripening variety. This is going to be one of the key questions of the vintage, and perhaps only resolved on a case by case basis.

Likely styles

• Fresh, fragrant wines with expressive aromatics and finesse in the best cases, but lack of concentration and unresolved tannins a risk.
• The amount of water in the soils at key points in the year will have limited the concentration of the berries.
• The movement away from red wine dominance continues, with 2024 production figures showing 80.5% red wine, 4.4% rosé, 10.5% dry white, 3.5% Crémant and 1.1% sweet white. Compare this to the usual percentage when I arrived in Bordeaux 20 years ago of 90% red wine, 8% dry and 2% sweet (and a tiny tiny fraction of Crémant). The challenges of the vintage will have led to more rosés, and Blanc de Noir white wines from red grapes (most typically with Merlot and Cabernet Franc), but the trend is clearly veering away from the absolute dominance of red wines.
• Alcohols will be lower than recent vintages pretty much across the board, and careful selection of juice during the fermentation process will have been key – the first free run juice was likely to be a little diluted, becoming more aromatic, rich and structured as maceration progressed, but the winemaking team would need to be careful about stopping before any bitter or green flavours crept in.
• Work in the cellar will have been key, clearly. Winemakers will have made full use of the available techniques, from chaptilisation to thermo vinification to zap the green pyrazine flavours.
• Uneven quality – this is a vintage to pay very careful attention to what you are buying, beccause phenolic, aromatic and technical maturity were all at risk.
• Low yields – these were already down because of mildew and other challenges, but the need for careful sorting during harvest brought everything down even further. The vintage belongs to the estates that were brave enough to make this final cut through, essential to avoid green flavours in the wine, one of the major risks of the vintage.

Markets

• Reasonable pricing is likely to genuinely offer access to some of the biggest names this year.
• As the general market is so challenging right now, for all fine wine regions, the small yield can be seen as a positive, certainly in terms of supply and demand. My own personal opinion is that estates should concentrate on making one good quality main estate wine, to release at a reasonable price. The quality potential for 2nd wines is bound to be a challenge.
• The new reciprocal US tariffs of 20% for EU goods will clearly put greater pressure on prices, and sales are expected to fall in the US. The impact this will have on En Primeur prices remains to be seen of course, but it seems likely that châteaux may face extreme pressure when setting their ex-châteaux numbers.

By Appellation

The chart shows you at a glance that yields were way, way down on an average year. Even the biggest appellations struggled to get over 30hl/h, where you would expect those Médoc powerhouse names to be above 40hl/h in almost every vintage.

Northern to the Heart of the Médoc
St Estèphe/Médoc/Haut-Médoc/Pauillac/St Julien
The normally solid appellations of Paiullac, St Julien and St Estèphe were way down, with some of the lowest yields that I can remember, with Pauillac below 30hl/h average, and St Juliena and St Estèphe just above at 33.6hl/ha yield, way down on average, while Médoc and Haut-Médoc dropped to 27hl/h on average between the two.
2024 was the rainiest winter in the past 24 years up in this part of Bordeaux, with a culmulative rainfall October 2023 to March 2024 330mm higher than the 30 year average, an increase of 34%. In total, around 1,500mm fell over the year in St Estèphe. Winter temperatures were mild, a full +5.6C over average, and fewer frost days than average, so early and homogenous bud break around March 19. May saw the wettest month since 2013, with the added issue of 20% less sunshine than average, meaning mildew and coulure were a threat – and later flowering June 12 under a warm and dry spell. A hail storm on May 18 in the appellation and into northern Médoc impacted some estates. Across this part of the Médoc, June, July and August saw less rainfall than usual, and the gap between highest and lowest temperatures within the norms, as you can see in the chart below, with September and October contrasting days, rain then sun.

Margaux/Moulis/Listrac
In terms of quantity, 2024 will be a small vintage for Margaux, at 33.1hl/h overall as elsewhere, and even the official AOC report says, ‘The cool summer resulted in wines that are lighter than usual but that offer more fruit and greater drinkability’. Far more drastic, however, were Moulis and Listrac, down at 19.7hl/h for Listrac and 28.5hl/h for Moulis – both of which were heavily impacted by a hail storm in September. It means that Moulis had a dispensation to chaptlise at a higher rate than other appellations, as harvesting needed to happen so quickly after hail for the impacted sectors (luckily not widespread).

Pessac Léognan and Graves
Rain in Pessac-Léognan from budding until the end of flowering was higher than the 10 year average at the Pessac weather station (67mm higher in May alone). A similar rainy period was seen in September with 150mm at the Pessac weather station compared to 100mm as an average across Bordeaux. The dry spell of weather in July and August – and parts of September – meant most plots reached ripeness, but it was a stressful finish here. Yields across both were fairly similar – Pessac Léognan 39hl/ha yield, while Graves saw 36hl/ha (37hl/ha for reds, 35hl/ha for whites), 26hl/ha for Graves Supérieures.

St Emilion/Pomerol
Old vine Merlots had a tough time with poor fruit set early in the season, but there are some successes in these appellations, reflected in a relatively healthy average yield of 36.4hl/ha average yield St Emilion. The issues with Merlot fruit set show more clearly in Pomerol, where the grape variety is dominant, and the average here reaches just 28.4hl/ha.

Côtes, Satellites, Bordeaux/Bordeaux Supérieur
AOC Castillon Côtes de Bordeaux 2024 :  28hl/ha, and 31.1hl/ha across all of the Côtes, AOC Bordeaux/Bordeaux Supérieur has done a little better at 36hl/ha average.
Fronsac and Canon-Fronsac down to 19hl/ha on average after two severe hail episodes in June.

White Bordeaux
We can expect some high points here, with beautiful aromatics and concentration in many wines, although some rain fell during the critical harvest period that meant a risk of dilution in some cases (although less impactful than the heavy rains later in September for the reds). Most Sauvignon Blanc came in during the first days of September, with Sémillon following soon after around September 9. Expect average alcohols of 13% or 13.5% for Sauvignon Blanc, and closer to 12% or 12.5% for Sémillon, with healthy yields for the whites overall at 48hl/h yield.
Sweet white wines as ever were lower, but not catastrophic, at 15.3hl/hAs a clue to the challenges faced by Sauternes, Château Climens is not yet going to show its main estate wine during primeurs, as quantities are so tiny, and blending is ongoing. Later ripening Sémillons that could take advantage of the dry period at the end of September will have benefitted, and there are some excellent sweet whites, less concentrated in sugar than in vintages like 2022.

Figures, information ISVV/Duanes/Boissenot/Rolland/Sovivins/Enosens