How accurate are the figures on wine fraud?

By Allan Liska, Recorded Future

How big is the market for wine fraud? The short answer is that no one can know for sure, the very nature of illicit markets means getting an accurate number is incredibly difficult. However, there are ways to estimate the size and scope of illicit activity, including wine fraud. The general consensus over the last half decade is that fraudulent wine accounts for about 20% of the total wine market, or $67.9 Billion in 2020.

Before diving into where that number originates, wine fraud needs to be defined. A standard definition of wine fraud is any wines that are adulterated, usually with the addition of cheaper products and sometimes with harmful chemicals and sweeteners. This definition also includes counterfeiting and the relabelling of inferior and cheaper wines to more expensive brands. Finally wine fraud includes any wine that is produced for sale without going through the proper tax or regulatory authorities.

Over the last 5 years, the 20% number for wine fraud has been cited dozens of times in publications around the world. Though the number may be consistent even further back, for example a 2021 paper that looked at Italian wine fraud from 2007-2015 estimated the fraudulent activity to account for 25% of the Italian wine market. The 20% figure was used by Wine Spectator and Sud Ouest [Original Link Unavailable] as far back 2013. The number is still widely used, for example in this Business Insider report from 2021.

The 20% number is not just used by the press, according to estimates from the World Trade Organisation, “counterfeit wine could cause damage equivalent to 20% of the world trade in wine.” The World Health Organisation has also released reporting indicating that as much as 25% “of worldwide alcohol consumption is unrecorded, meaning not taxed and is outside the usual system of governmental control…” This includes alcohol made at home, but also fraudulently produced alcohol.

Of course, fraudulent wine varies by region. For example, in 2016 the European Union Intellectual Property Office released a report stating that 8.6% of wines from the European Union were counterfeit (divided into three categories: Imitation or evocation [38%], Misleading GI labels [41%] and Deception in product specifications [22%]). At the same time, the Comité National des Conseillers du Commerce Extérieur de la France (CNCCEF) released a report stating that 50% of wines in China were fake or misleading.

It is impossible to fully grasp the scope of wine fraud throughout the world. However, the 20% figure applied to global wine fraud has appeared repeatedly for almost a decade. While it is certainly worthy of debate, it cannot be denied that the number has been widely accepted in reporting, academic research and by international organisations.

This subject is covered in more depth, and with link to Recorded Future’s original report, with extensive footnotes and references for further research, here (subscriber content).